Week 5 NFL Picks

Al Davis died again this week, and as cliché as it might seem, I like the Raiders to Just Win Baby against the Texans in Houston. Or at least cover the spread. Oakland has been pretty good, and Houston might be a little overated in this spot (playing at home a week after a high-profile win over the Steelers). Following the death of Davis, it certainly would have been more emotional if it was a home game or if they were playing a division rival. But I don’t think anyone in the sports world would be shocked to see the Raiders play with a little extra emotion and win this game on the road, especially considering that Houston’s All-World WR Andre Johnson is out. Oh by the way, the Texans are giving 6 points. That line is too high, take Oakland +6.

Only a degenerate gambler would consider wagering on the game between the Manning-less Colts and the 1-3 Chiefs. But I think Indianapolis at home, after 4 weeks of practicing how to play without Peyton, they can manage a win over a punchless and weak Kansas City team. Of course, the Colts are still winless, but therein lies the value: it’s only Indy -2 or so, depending where you look. They get the win this week and the easy cover. Bet the Colts.

Here’s another horrible game that you have to bet on just to give it a reason to exist. The Bengals travel to Jacksonville to take on a bad Jaguars team breaking in a rookie QB. Ciny has a rookie QB but he’s been damn good so far and has an explosive fellow rookie at WR. The Jags defense is decent, but the Bengals is better. Mix in the fact that Cincinnati is pretty good and Jackonville just isn’t… yea, the Bengals are gonna win this game, by at least 7 or so. But probably more like 24-13 or even 27-10. This line opened at Jacksonville minus 2 or so and has slowly been moving toward the Bengals. You might have to lay a point, but take Cincinnati.

It’s time for this week’s Joe Obvious Square Public Pick! That’s right, I’m suggesting you bet the OVER in the Philly/Buffalo game. It’s a high total (51.5) but you know both teams have a good chance of hitting 28.

Sunday night, despite all the signs pointing to Aaron Rodgers being unstoppable and the fact that this line opened at GB -4.5 and was bet up to GB -6… and the fact that Atlanta probably isn’t as great as we think they are…. I have a weird feeling the home crowd for the nationally televised Sunday night game and a little playoff payback will push the Falcon over the Packers. And if they fall short? You’re getting 6 points. Take Atlanta plus the points.

Monday night, I like the New Upstart Can You Believe the LIONS of Detroit. First Monday nighter in 10 years, loud dome, dominant pass rush, Jay Cutler and his lack of protection up front, Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson. Done. Take Detroit -5. And the Lions defense isn’t great so I imagine this could end up turning into a garbage time pseudo shootout as Cutler, Hester, and Forte score enough to hang around push this one over 47.5 points relatively easily. Bet the Lions-Bears OVER.

Last Week: 2-1
This Season: 9-6-1


Week 3 NFL Picks

There’s a few old adages in NFL wagering, like beware of road favorites or be careful betting on that one obvious easy play that everyone else loves. I’m going against both of those warnings this week.

First, the road favorite. It’s not going out on a limb to suggest that the Detroit Lions might be for real. It’s a pretty risky prospect to back that up by taking the Lions giving points on the road to a division rival. The Minnesota Vikings might be 0-2 right now, but they’re not that far removed from their run the NFC championship. But the Detroit defense will stifle Adrian Peterson just enough, and Donovan McNabb won’t be able to save them. Soon as Matthew Stafford gets a couple TD’s on the board and a sack/fumble by McNabb puts the Lions up 21-3, the crowd will be out of the game and we’ll all be wondering why Detroit wasn’t favored by more. Take the Lions -3 at Minnesota.

Now for the Joe Square Public Pick That Will Still Win: Patriots-Bills to go Over 54. I know that’s a pretty high total, and it’s already been bet up from the opening line of 51, so the whole world and their degenerate-gambler mothers love the over in this game. This is the first “really big game” in Buffalo in a long time, featuring two QB’s who sling it around against defenses that can’t really stop anyone. Too obvious, huh. Vegas knows all this so they set this total so high that maybe we should take the under? Could have a “playoff atmosphere” and the semi-shootout only gets to around 31-20 and it stays under the total? No way. 30-27 or 31-24 will push it over, and I still think this one will be more like 38-30 Pats. Take Bills-Patriots Over 54.

I also like New Orleans -3.5 at home against the Houston Texans. The Saints have battled the Packers and Bears so far while Houston has been on the JV circuit, sparring with the Manning-less Colts and the lackluster Dolphins. The Texans step up in competition this week against Drew Brees and the Saints in what will also be their first hostile environment of the year. Saints might cruise in this one, but even if it’s not a blowout, New Orleans will cover the spread easily.

Teaser of the Week: Take the Titans and tease them down from -7 to -1 at home against the Broncos by pairing it up with the Steelers, teasing them down from 10.5 to a much more manageable -4.5 at Indy. Tease Titans -1 with Steelers -4.5


Last Week: 2-2
This Season: 5-4

Against the Spread: Week 1 NFL Picks

Ah, football is back and it gives me the munchies. In this economy, or lack thereof, the only safe investment is to gamble recklessly on pro football point spreads. Time to revive the NFL Picks column and give out a few best bets against the spread for Week 1.

Over the last two years of picking games for a football website, I went 128-100. Nothing great, but good enough. This year I bring the column to Bums Logic in hopes of helping some of you degenerate gamblers and office pool players some tips on winning a few bucks this year. You’re welcome. Donations accepted.

Wait, this just in, someone else just made the “this just in, the Packers just scored another touchdown” joke. Now onto the Week 1 NFL Picks:

Continue reading →